Vietnam Export Outlook 2025: Key Product Groups and Strategic Response to Tariff Risks

Overview of Vietnam’s Export Performance

In 2024, Vietnam’s total export value reached USD 405.53 billion, up 14.3% year-on-year. Domestic enterprises accounted for USD 114.59 billion (28.3%), growing nearly 20% – higher than the FDI sector but still holding a smaller share, indicating great potential for growth if properly supported.

In Q1/2025, export value was estimated at USD 102.84 billion (+10.6% YoY), with 18 product categories exceeding USD 1 billion in export turnover. Among these, five surpassed USD 5 billion, making up nearly 60% of total exports.

Kim ngạch xuất khẩu năm 2024

Kim ngạch xuất khẩu năm 2024

Five Key Export Categories Poised for Growth

Electronics, Computers, and Components

Export value reached USD 72.6 billion in 2024 (+26.6%) driven by global supply chain shifts and increasing technology demand.

Machinery and Equipment

Reached USD 14.48 billion (+13.84%) thanks to domestic industrial support policies and technical cooperation.

Textiles, Garments, and Footwear

Exported over USD 10 billion by mid-April 2025, up 10.58%, boosted by recovery in the US and EU markets, and favorable FTAs like EVFTA and CPTPP.

Processed Agricultural Products and Seafood

USD 9.8 billion in Q1/2025 (+12.8%), with fruits and vegetables growing over 20% due to demand for sustainable and safe food.

Wood and Furniture Products

Export rose over 20% in 2024, with high demand in the US and EU for certified, eco-friendly furniture.

Kim ngạch xuất khẩu và tăng trưởng theo ngành hàng (2024)

Kim ngạch xuất khẩu và tăng trưởng theo ngành hàng (2024)

Global Factors Impacting Export Performance

  • Supply chain disruption: Red Sea crisis, natural disasters, and rising logistics costs in Vietnam.

  • Geopolitical tensions: Potential US tariffs due to trade surplus with Vietnam exceeding USD 120 billion.

  • Environmental and technical standards: Strict regulations from US and EU markets.

  • Rising regional competition: ASEAN countries such as Thailand, Malaysia, and Cambodia accelerating exports.

Strategic Responses for Sustainable Growth

  • Leverage 17 active Free Trade Agreements (EVFTA, CPTPP, RCEP).

  • Promote cross-border e-commerce through platforms like Amazon, Alibaba.

  • Invest in production technology and origin traceability systems.

  • Adopt circular economy and green logistics solutions.

Thị trường xuất khẩu chính của Việt Nam năm 2024

Thị trường xuất khẩu chính của Việt Nam năm 2024

US Tariff Scenarios and Exporter Strategies

Tariff Level Impact Suggested Strategy
10% Moderate Optimize logistics, add value, use FTAs effectively
20–25% Significant Shift to new markets, partial processing abroad
45% Severe Refocus on EU, Middle East, and e-commerce channels

Thặng dư thương mại giữa Việt Nam với Mỹ (2014-2024)

Thặng dư thương mại giữa Việt Nam với Mỹ (2014-2024)

Strategic Roadmap for Exporters

  • Diversify export markets and avoid over-reliance on any one market

  • Upgrade processing capabilities and increase value-added content

  • Develop direct e-commerce export channels

  • Ensure traceability and transparency in supply chain

  • Integrate circular economy and sustainability into operations

  • Maximize FTA benefits and government export support programs

 

Sources:

  • Cổng thông tin điện tử Bộ Công Thương (MOIT)
  • Cổng thông tin điện tử Bộ Kế hoạch và Đầu tư (www.mpi.gov.vn)
  • Trang thông tin điện tử Cục Thống kê
  • Tạp chí Kinh tế – Tài chính Hải quan Online
  • Tạp chí Tài chính điện tử – Bộ Tài chính

BUSINESS PARTNERS

Call Hotline
Gọi ngay
Chat on Facebook Chat Facebook
Chat on Zalo Chat Zalo